Earlier this week, we asked ChatGPT 3.5 and 4 the following question: Will ChatGPT and AI integration into online search, including in Google’s own search, cannibalize the total ad revenues of Google, given that people won’t need to visit websites or click through to get the information they want?
GPT 4 provided the more insightful answer here than GPT 3.5.
Today, we asked Bard the same question, given Google’s splashy announcement this week of AI integration into its search to make it more conversational and chat-like. See video:
Bard provided the following equivocal response:
It is possible that ChatGPT and AI integration into online search could cannibalize Google’s total ad revenues. If people are able to get the information they need without visiting websites or clicking through to ads, then Google will not be able to generate as much revenue from those clicks. However, it is also possible that ChatGPT and AI integration could actually increase Google’s ad revenues. If people are able to get the information they need more quickly and easily, then they may be more likely to click on ads that are relevant to their interests. Additionally, ChatGPT and AI could be used to create new types of ads that are more engaging and effective.
Ultimately, it is too early to say for sure whether ChatGPT and AI integration will cannibalize Google’s total ad revenues. However, it is a trend that Google is closely watching and that could have a significant impact on the company’s business in the future.
Here are some additional thoughts on the potential impact of ChatGPT and AI integration on Google’s ad revenues:
- ChatGPT and AI could make it easier for people to find the information they need, which could lead to less time spent browsing websites and clicking on ads.
- ChatGPT and AI could be used to create more personalized ads that are more likely to be clicked on.
- ChatGPT and AI could be used to create new types of ads that are more engaging and interactive.
Overall, the impact of ChatGPT and AI integration on Google’s ad revenues is still unknown. However, it is a trend that Google is closely watching and that could have a significant impact on the company’s business in the future.
Surprisingly, we think GPT 4’s analysis provided greater insights than Google. GPT 4 noted: (1) Google ads are based on impressions, not just click throughs. (2) The chat answers might not yield the depth of information that people are searching for, so click throughs to websites and ads might still occur. Both GPT 4 and Google Bard did say that Google might adapt and devise new types of ads to counteract the potential displacement by AI search/chat.
Judge for yourself. Here’s GPT 4’s answer:
The integration of AI like ChatGPT into online search could theoretically affect Google's ad revenues, but it's important to consider the complexity of the situation.
Firstly, it's important to remember that ad revenues are generated not just through clicks, but also through impressions. Even if users are not clicking through to websites as often, they would still be exposed to ads during their search and interaction with the AI.
Secondly, it's not guaranteed that AI integration would entirely replace the need to visit websites. While an AI like ChatGPT can provide quick answers to simple questions, it may not always be able to provide the depth or breadth of information that can be found on a full webpage, particularly for complex topics or unique queries. In such cases, users may still need to click through to websites for more information.
Additionally, Google could adapt their business model in response to these changes. For instance, they could develop new advertising products or strategies that are specifically designed to work with AI-powered search. They could also find ways to monetize the AI interactions themselves, such as sponsored answers or prioritized content.
Ultimately, while AI integration could potentially affect Google's ad revenues, it's also likely that the company would adapt and innovate in response to these changes. Google has a history of staying ahead of the curve when it comes to technological advancements, and it's likely they would find ways to leverage AI integration to their advantage.
Remember, however, that these are just possibilities and the actual impact would depend on a variety of factors, including the specifics of how AI is integrated into search, how users respond to these changes, and how Google and other companies adapt their strategies in response. It would be a complex interplay of technology, user behavior, and business strategy.