Now that OpenAI restructured itself into a public benefit company, there’s already anticipation for it to offer an IPO potentially as early as late 2026 with a valuation of $1 trillion.
An IPO increases the probability OpenAI settles most or all of the copyright suits
The timing of an IPO could affect OpenAI’s willingness to settle most or all of the 13 or so copyright lawsuits it now faces in the MDL Litigation before Judge Stein in New York.
The reply briefs for summary judgment motions in the MDL Litigation are due on October 16, 2026. Judge Stein could then rule in the next several months after the hearing (whenever it is scheduled). Given the complexity of issues and number of cases, however, it could take until sometime in 2027 before Judge Stein rules and issues his opinion on fair use and infringement as well as the DMCI CMI and anti-circumvention claims, and other claims.
Given that timeline, I think it’s highly unlikely that OpenAI would plan an IPO for the fall 2026 with the enormous uncertainty that Judge Stein could issue an adverse ruling against OpenAI around the time of the IPO.
So, OpenAI either (1) puts off any IPO until Judge Stein rules (which would likely push back any IPO well into 2027 or even later) or (2) starts settling at least some of the major copyright lawsuits to clear the way for an IPO in fall 2026 before Judge Stein rules.
ChatGPT agreed that OpenAI more likely to settle with IPO
ChatGPT agreed. It estimated an IPO for OpenAI increases the probability of OpenAI settling most or all of the lawsuits by a significant percentage, up to a 30% increase. See table:
Here’s the reasoning of ChatGPT in which I concur:
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