Now that the Bartz v. Anthropic $1.5 billion class action settlement has been preliminarily approved, we can turn to its potential effect on other lawsuit.
It sets a benchmark for other copyright lawsuits, especially the ones involving similar alleged facts in the defendant’s use of shadow libraries. If the judges in these other cases follow Judge Alsup’s approach to shadow libraries and class certification, the dynamics for settlement will be almost exactly the same. And, for the other book author class action suits, we should expect the plaintiffs to see at least $1.5 billion.
ChatGPT computed probabilities of settlement in some of the other 47 copyright lawsuits still pending. For most cases, it’s better than 50%. Do you agree?
ChatGPT’s Estimate of Probabilities of Settlements in Other Copyright Suits v. AI
Table 1. Probability of Settlement in Other Copyright Suits v. AI Companies
| Cluster / Exemplar Case | Probability | Notes |
| U.S. book-author class actions (vs. OpenAI/Microsoft) | 55% | High chance given blueprint from Anthropic settlement; bargaining anchor at ≥$1.5B. |
| NYT v. OpenAI/Microsoft | 35% | Single-plaintiff; likely to end in license + guardrails, not a per-work claims fund. |
| Getty Images v. Stability AI | 45% | Active UK & U.S. litigation; settlement likely lump-sum + license, not claims fund. |
| Music labels v. Suno/Udio | 70% | Labels favor cash + licenses; strong leverage narrative similar to Anthropic. |
| Programmer/Copilot cases | 25% | Weakened claims; unlikely to see class-wide payout; modest injunctive or small payment more likely. |
| Scraping/ToS/API suits | 60% | Often resolve quietly with commercial terms; smaller dollar figures, not claims funds. |
| Kai Bird–led author class v. Microsoft | 50% | Mirrors Bartz v. Anthropic; strong unlawful sourcing allegations. Microsoft may resist longer. |
| Hendrix v. Apple (Book Authors) | 50% | Filed Sept. 2025; same illegal-sourcing theory. Apple may fight, but exposure is significant. |
| Warner Bros. v. Midjourney | 57% | High-profile characters; possible license/filters instead of fund. Allegations raise exposure. (Adjusted for Meta partnership and insurance coverage). |
| Disney/Universal v. Midjourney | 62% | Iconic IP; likely hybrid settlement (license + filters + damages). Fair use battle expected. (Adjusted for Meta partnership and insurance coverage). |